A new nationwide study from Chaikin Trial Group is challenging one of the most widely repeated assumptions in road safety: that heavy traffic slows vehicles enough to make cities safer for pedestrians. According to their latest findings, congestion alone does not protect people walking — and in some U.S. metros, lighter congestion actually coincides with significantly higher pedestrian death risk.
While drivers across the United States lose dozens of hours each year to traffic delays, pedestrian deaths continue to climb at alarming rates. Between 2013 and 2022, overall U.S. traffic fatalities rose by 22.5 percent — but pedestrian deaths surged by 50 percent, marking one of the sharpest increases in modern history. In 2024, pedestrian fatalities reached 7,148 deaths, underscoring a crisis that cannot be explained simply by traffic volume.
Comparing Congestion to Pedestrian Risk
To better understand the issue, researchers developed a Pedestrian Danger-Per-Congestion Index, comparing pedestrian fatality rates against annual congestion hours in major U.S. metro areas.
The contrast it revealed was striking.
Cities traditionally associated with gridlock — Washington, D.C., New York, Chicago, Boston, and Philadelphia — recorded some of the highest congestion levels in the nation, with drivers losing anywhere from 79 to 117 hours per year to traffic. Yet they also posted some of the lowest danger scores in the analysis.
Boston, for example, reported 79 hours of congestion but recorded one of the safest pedestrian environments, while New York, with 102 hours, also ranked among the safest. Washington, D.C., topping the congestion list at 117 hours, similarly showed relatively low pedestrian risk.
These cities benefit from dense urban layouts, shorter street blocks, multiple crosswalks, strong public transit, and infrastructure that naturally reduces impact speeds — resulting in fewer severe pedestrian collisions despite extreme congestion.
Where the Real Danger Lies
On the other hand, metros with far less congestion experienced far more pedestrian danger.
Cities such as Tampa, Phoenix, Austin, San Antonio, and New Orleans recorded fewer than 40 hours of congestion per year, yet ranked among the most hazardous places in the country for people on foot.
-
Tampa lost just 28 hours to traffic but recorded the highest danger index in the nation.
-
New Orleans, with 37 hours of congestion, ranked the second most dangerous.
-
Phoenix, Austin, and San Antonio followed closely behind, all reporting elevated pedestrian risk despite noticeably lighter traffic.
In these metros, fewer traffic backups often mean higher driving speeds, more wide roadways designed for throughput, longer crossing distances, and fewer pedestrian protections. Combined, these conditions contribute to deadlier outcomes when collisions occur.
The Southern Risk Divide
Regional trends in the study were impossible to ignore.
Southern metros dominate the danger rankings, with Florida and Texas alone representing six of the riskiest cities analyzed. Eight of the ten most dangerous metros for pedestrian safety are located in the South, where development patterns emphasize vehicle speed, long arterial roads, and limited protected crossings.
By comparison, Northeastern cities — many designed before the automobile era — naturally slow cars and prioritize walking by design.
What’s Causing Pedestrian Deaths?
The study highlights several recurring contributors:
• Drivers failing to yield account for over half of U.S. pedestrian deaths
• Poor nighttime lighting reduces pedestrian visibility
• High-speed corridors create lethal impact conditions
• Limited crossings force pedestrians to take risks
• Wide multi-lane roadways increase exposure time
These deaths are not simply the result of congestion levels; they are directly tied to infrastructure decision-making and policy priorities.
Congestion Isn’t a Safety Strategy
One of the most important takeaways is that congestion itself does not equal safety.
Slower vehicles only reduce harm when paired with urban planning designed to protect pedestrians. The safest metros aren’t safer because of traffic — they are safer because of deliberate design choices:
• More crosswalks
• Shorter crossing distances
• Traffic-calming infrastructure
• Public transit investment
• Lower speed environments
Meanwhile, fast-growing metros that expand roadways without equivalent safety measures are seeing the opposite effect — less congestion, but more pedestrian deaths.
A Call for Action
With pedestrian deaths continuing to climb nationally, the Chaikin Trial Group study reinforces what traffic safety advocates have warned for years: meaningful reductions in fatalities require intentional engineering, stronger enforcement, and smarter design — not reliance on traffic to slow vehicles.
Cities most at risk will need to rethink roadway priorities and invest in:
• Protected crossings
• Stronger yield enforcement
• Safer nighttime lighting
• Reduced corridor speeds
• Walkability-focused infrastructure
Without these changes, the firm warns, the U.S. will continue to see disproportionately high pedestrian fatality rates — particularly in sunbelt metros where vehicle speeds remain high and growth continues rapidly.
What This Means Moving Forward
The findings serve as a powerful reminder that pedestrian safety isn’t a by-product of congestion — it is the result of conscious public policy choices. As fatality numbers remain near historic highs, city leaders and transportation planners face growing pressure to rethink how streets are designed, enforced, and prioritized.
The message from Chaikin Trial Group is clear: congestion slows cars, but it does not automatically save lives. Only safer roads do.
